What method should I choose when I create a short-term forecast?

Workforce management has four creation method options when creating a short-term forecast. Each option has specific uses, capabilities and requirements.

  • Automatic Best Method Selection:
    • Overview: This AI powered forecasting option is by far the most sophisticated methodology offered in workforce management and includes built in automated capabilities for historical data cleanup, outlier and calendar effect identification, pattern detection including seasonality and trends and best of best modeling to select from 20+ methodologies including ARIMA, WM, Decomp.  This creation method can be configured to create forecasts from one to six weeks in length.
    • Pre-requisites to use this option: Historical data in Genesys Cloud is necessary to use this creation method.  While Automatic Best Method Selection will work with as little as one week of historical data, it will be much more powerful with more historical data.  Specifically, to determine daily arrival patterns for scheduling, this methodology looks at up to 90 days of historical data.  For seasonality detection, a full season or multiple seasons of data will produce the best results.
  • Weighted Historical Index:
    • Overview: This forecast creation method allows the forecaster to weight, at a daily level, one or more weeks of historical data. The resulting weighted average, by day, is used to output a forecast one week at a time. 
    • Pre-requisites: This option requires historical data in Genesys Cloud, however it does give the option to import data from outside the platform. Due to the flexibility of this creation method, it is often used when a lot of manual forecast manipulation is necessary.
  • Weighted Historical Index with Source Data Import
    • Overview: This creation method is exactly the same as Weighted Historical Index but it prompts the user to import data from a file instead of utilizing data in the Genesys Cloud platform.
    • Pre-requisites: This option requires a data file with at least one historical week of data in it to use for the weight averaging process. This method is often used by brand new Genesys Cloud customers who do not have historical data on the platform yet. 
  • Import Forecast:
    • Overview: This new option has two primary uses.  First, if customers have an existing forecast process outside of Genesys Cloud and would like to use forecasts created elsewhere, they can use this option.  For example, if the Genesys Cloud customer is an outsourcer who staffs to forecasts created by their customers, they could load a forecast created by their customer into this method and then generate a schedule based on that forecast.  The second use for this creation method is when a customer wants to heavily modify a forecast created using Automatic Best Selection method.  They can export an existing forecast, modify it in excel, and re-import it into a new forecast using this method.
    • Pre-requisites: Historical data is not required.  A file containing a forecast that meets the file specifications is all that is required to use this creation method.